Manchester United vs Norwich City Prediction – Tough times for both teams

With news coming in that Manchester United’s owners have sacked manager David Moyes, it could well be a managerless team that would walk out on the pitch for the weekend’s game against Norwich City. However, looking at the drastic fall from grace for the defending champions, one might be excused for thinking that they never really had any manager throughout the season. Barring a Quarterfinal appearance in the Champions League, the season has had very few positives to look at for Manchester United fans. At the time of writing, rumours are going round that the entire backroom staff will be vacated too, so we might see Ryan Giggs take up the reins temporarily.

Norwich City have their own problems to face. What seemed like relative comfort in terms of the relegation battle has fast turned into a very likely possibility that they will be one of the teams that will go down to the Championship. They are presently 2 points above Cardiff City and Fulham, who are on 18th and 19th place respectively. Norwich need to find a way to stop the string of losses that have brought them to this position, as even a couple of draws in the last few games would have made their position more secure.

For Norwich City, there will never be a better time to play Manchester United, with all the off field problems that the defending champions are facing. If Norwich are able to get all 3 points in this game, they will be able to ensure that they have a better chance of avoiding the drop. They definitely cannot afford another loss as their relegation battlers are sure to get some points from their respective games. Manchester United have nothing to play for, not even pride, the way their season has panned out, and most players would be looking at the World Cup and next season, and would want this nightmare to end as quickly as possible.

Manchester United are missing out on 3 first team players in Rafael, Robin van Persie and Patrice Evra. All 3 of them are out for the long term and have no chance of making it to this weekend’s game.

Norwich City have only 2 players on the injury list, with Yobo still not having recovered from his shin injury. However, Bennett is scheduled to make a return this weekend, though the chances of him making into the starting eleven are slim.
Man Utd Norwich Head to Head

Manchester United and Norwich City have played each other a total of 58 times, with Manchester United being the obvious dominant team. United have won 34 games while Norwich managed to win 12 of them, with the remaining ending in a draw.

Manchester United – LWWLW
Norwich City – LLLLW

Prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Norwich City

Under normal circumstances, you would expect even a David Moyes led Manchester United to stroll past a hapless Norwich City but the sacking of Moyes could not have come at a better time for the Canaries.

Could we rely on betting patterns?

One of the basic issues when talking about sports betting systems is can we rely the outcomes of a particular group of matches to be repeated in the same way when we have a similar group of matches in the future. Said it with other words, if a number of matches have ended with Over 2.5 goals scored by both teams, does it mean that the same group of matches will end with the same number of Overs?

Most of the players who deal with sports betting worldwide would respond to this question with an Yes, although the number of them who really gain some profit from sports betting is relatively small.

However, the skeptics would say that this can’t happen because any sports match is too unpredictable, which denies the option the bettor to be able to rely only on past data. To this argument the players who believe that statistics can provide reliable information usually answer that a game itself is hard to be predicted based only on statistics, but if you have a hundred matches, then it is another matter and you can get the needed percentage of winners.

Which one of both groups is closer to the truth? If you look at the amount of players who are interested in betting statistics and bets with bookmakers like William Hill, bet365 and Bet at home and compare them with the amount of players who actually gain profit from sports betting, you will see that there is a definite difference between what most of the players expect and what they actually get.

Also, we can say that the analysis of betting statistics is not easy and only really good mathematicians can find the valuable information in it. Unfortunately, the percentage of those really good mathematicians among the bettors is not particularly high.

However, can the betting statistics help us to create a betting system that wins money every month? The answer is no (in most of the cases), but to search for such a system is good because the process of searching helps us to understand sports betting better and thus reduces our losses when dealing with your favorite hobby.

Betting prediction for Everton vs Cardiff

Cardiff needs a miracle to keep its place in the Premier League for one more season, although the victory over Fulham in the last round definitely improve their situation. However, this Saturday the Welsh are going to play against Everton and the task to grab some points from Goodison Park is definitely not an easy challenge.

Everton continued their fight for the top positions in the Premier League, although it is already clear that they will not finish in the top 4 places. They have also been beaten in the FA Cup, which is not a good sign at all. Actually if we look over the results in the last few month it would be easy to say that now Everton plays like a team on the middle of the table. However, they are good enough to beat without much trouble Cardiff, something that most likely will happen on Saturday afternoon.

This is also easy to be seen from the coefficients offered by the major bookmakers for this match. A possible Everton victory is rated at 1.35 by Bet at home and 1.33 by bet365. The William Hill’s proposal for a home win is 1.36. The draw chances are estimated on 4.6 by William Hill and Bet at home and on 5 by bet365. William Hill and bet365 give odds of 9 for a win for Cardiff and the proposal of Bet at home is 8.7.

At first glance it may safely be said that the odds appear to be correct and it is difficult to find some value.

When you look on the goals markets again is very difficult to find any value in offered by the bookmakers odds. They proposed 1.8 for Over and 2 for Under 2.5 goals scored by Everton and Cardiff in this match.

When judging the odds and the strength of both teams, perhaps the wisest thing a player can do in this match is simply to pass and not to bet. Something that at least I am going to do.

Betting systems based on the scored goals in the Premier League

In the last few years I follow the statistics for created goal attempts and goals in the matches of the English Premier League. I try to find some correlation which to lead to the construction of a betting strategy, which to be profitable for soccer betting. A few day’s ago I found an interesting pattern, which I am going to describe in the next few lines.

Firstly, some explanations. For each goal attempt I give a point for the team and for each goal I give seven points ( I read a statistical analysis, which says that in the Premier League to score a goal a team needs average 7 goal attempts). I collect the points of both team in their last four matches (for the hosts the four home matches and for the guests the four away matches) and thus I get some value that helps me decide should I bet on Under or Over 2.5 goals scored by both teams.

In this case, I found out that if I look only on matches which has a value bigger than 200 points, 49 of these matches end with more than 2.5 goals scored by both teams and 29 are under 2.5 goals.

This gives a percentage of 62.8, which in turn corresponds to odds of 1.59. In general the average rate for Over 2.5 scored goals in the Premier League is around 1.8, which gives good signs for gaining profit by betting on this way. The lowest odds of Over 2.5 that I’ve ever seen in the Premier League is 1.45, which once again shows that this system can be profitable, since this odds is close to the average success rate, which is achieved through this betting way.

In the last round of the Premier League I found two such matches. One was a winner and the other was a loser, but with only two matches it is difficult to make a real judgment.

This is why I will wait to get more data and when that happens I will write again is this betting option good enough or no.