One of the basic issues when talking about sports betting systems is can we rely the outcomes of a particular group of matches to be repeated in the same way when we have a similar group of matches in the future. Said it with other words, if a number of matches have ended with Over 2.5 goals scored by both teams, does it mean that the same group of matches will end with the same number of Overs?
Most of the players who deal with sports betting worldwide would respond to this question with an Yes, although the number of them who really gain some profit from sports betting is relatively small.
However, the skeptics would say that this can’t happen because any sports match is too unpredictable, which denies the option the bettor to be able to rely only on past data. To this argument the players who believe that statistics can provide reliable information usually answer that a game itself is hard to be predicted based only on statistics, but if you have a hundred matches, then it is another matter and you can get the needed percentage of winners.
Which one of both groups is closer to the truth? If you look at the amount of players who are interested in betting statistics and bets with bookmakers like William Hill, bet365 and Bet at home and compare them with the amount of players who actually gain profit from sports betting, you will see that there is a definite difference between what most of the players expect and what they actually get.
Also, we can say that the analysis of betting statistics is not easy and only really good mathematicians can find the valuable information in it. Unfortunately, the percentage of those really good mathematicians among the bettors is not particularly high.
However, can the betting statistics help us to create a betting system that wins money every month? The answer is no (in most of the cases), but to search for such a system is good because the process of searching helps us to understand sports betting better and thus reduces our losses when dealing with your favorite hobby.
Cardiff needs a miracle to keep its place in the Premier League for one more season, although the victory over Fulham in the last round definitely improve their situation. However, this Saturday the Welsh are going to play against Everton and the task to grab some points from Goodison Park is definitely not an easy challenge.
Everton continued their fight for the top positions in the Premier League, although it is already clear that they will not finish in the top 4 places. They have also been beaten in the FA Cup, which is not a good sign at all. Actually if we look over the results in the last few month it would be easy to say that now Everton plays like a team on the middle of the table. However, they are good enough to beat without much trouble Cardiff, something that most likely will happen on Saturday afternoon.
This is also easy to be seen from the coefficients offered by the major bookmakers for this match. A possible Everton victory is rated at 1.35 by Bet at home and 1.33 by bet365. The William Hill’s proposal for a home win is 1.36. The draw chances are estimated on 4.6 by William Hill and Bet at home and on 5 by bet365. William Hill and bet365 give odds of 9 for a win for Cardiff and the proposal of Bet at home is 8.7.
At first glance it may safely be said that the odds appear to be correct and it is difficult to find some value.
When you look on the goals markets again is very difficult to find any value in offered by the bookmakers odds. They proposed 1.8 for Over and 2 for Under 2.5 goals scored by Everton and Cardiff in this match.
When judging the odds and the strength of both teams, perhaps the wisest thing a player can do in this match is simply to pass and not to bet. Something that at least I am going to do.
In the last few years I follow the statistics for created goal attempts and goals in the matches of the English Premier League. I try to find some correlation which to lead to the construction of a betting strategy, which to be profitable for soccer betting. A few day’s ago I found an interesting pattern, which I am going to describe in the next few lines.
Firstly, some explanations. For each goal attempt I give a point for the team and for each goal I give seven points ( I read a statistical analysis, which says that in the Premier League to score a goal a team needs average 7 goal attempts). I collect the points of both team in their last four matches (for the hosts the four home matches and for the guests the four away matches) and thus I get some value that helps me decide should I bet on Under or Over 2.5 goals scored by both teams.
In this case, I found out that if I look only on matches which has a value bigger than 200 points, 49 of these matches end with more than 2.5 goals scored by both teams and 29 are under 2.5 goals.
This gives a percentage of 62.8, which in turn corresponds to odds of 1.59. In general the average rate for Over 2.5 scored goals in the Premier League is around 1.8, which gives good signs for gaining profit by betting on this way. The lowest odds of Over 2.5 that I’ve ever seen in the Premier League is 1.45, which once again shows that this system can be profitable, since this odds is close to the average success rate, which is achieved through this betting way.
In the last round of the Premier League I found two such matches. One was a winner and the other was a loser, but with only two matches it is difficult to make a real judgment.
This is why I will wait to get more data and when that happens I will write again is this betting option good enough or no.