Betting systems based on the scored goals in the Premier League

In the last few years I follow the statistics for created goal attempts and goals in the matches of the English Premier League. I try to find some correlation which to lead to the construction of a betting strategy, which to be profitable for soccer betting. A few day’s ago I found an interesting pattern, which I am going to describe in the next few lines.

Firstly, some explanations. For each goal attempt I give a point for the team and for each goal I give seven points ( I read a statistical analysis, which says that in the Premier League to score a goal a team needs average 7 goal attempts). I collect the points of both team in their last four matches (for the hosts the four home matches and for the guests the four away matches) and thus I get some value that helps me decide should I bet on Under or Over 2.5 goals scored by both teams.

In this case, I found out that if I look only on matches which has a value bigger than 200 points, 49 of these matches end with more than 2.5 goals scored by both teams and 29 are under 2.5 goals.

This gives a percentage of 62.8, which in turn corresponds to odds of 1.59. In general the average rate for Over 2.5 scored goals in the Premier League is around 1.8, which gives good signs for gaining profit by betting on this way. The lowest odds of Over 2.5 that I’ve ever seen in the Premier League is 1.45, which once again shows that this system can be profitable, since this odds is close to the average success rate, which is achieved through this betting way.

In the last round of the Premier League I found two such matches. One was a winner and the other was a loser, but with only two matches it is difficult to make a real judgment.

This is why I will wait to get more data and when that happens I will write again is this betting option good enough or no.