West Ham United

While Sam Allardyce was accused of playing boring, defensive football against Chelsea on Wednesday, his tactics were enough to earn them a deserved, much needed point in the 0-0 draw.

This comes during a time when they have just one win in their last ten matches in all competitions. In their last ten Premier League matches they have picked up just six points. In this same time they have given up at least two goals in six matches while keeping three clean sheets as well.

This season West Ham has average one goal per game which increases to 1.2 per game at home. However, they have really struggled defensively with an average 1.4 goals allowed that also increases at home to 1.7 per game.

They have also averaged just 43% possession at home and have completed 75% of their passes. Defensively they have conceded an average of 16.4 shots per game, 33.5 clearances and 5.3 shots blocked at home.

Swansea City

The Swans midweek 2-0 win over Fulham was much needed at this point in their season. While not fully out of the woods yet, the three points move them into 11th place with 24 points, enough to be five clear of West Ham in 18th. It was also their third win in their last five matches in all competitions.

In the Premier League they have not fared so well as it was their first win in their last nine matches which include five losses. The win interrupts a three match losing streak.

Swansea’s clean sheet against Fulham in midweek was their first in the Premier League since the 3-0 home win over Newcastle back on December 4. Since then they have allowed at least two goals in four different matches. They have allowed an average of 1.4 goals per game which actually drops to 1.2 in away matches. They have averaged scoring 1.3 goals per game, but this drops to 0.7 per game in away games.

Prediction

My pick is a draw. West Ham will most likely struggle to retain possession with Swansea dominating most of the game, but most likely struggling to score.

These two teams have only met three times in the past with each team getting a win and one draw. In their previous meeting this season the match ended 0-0 at Swansea. I’m predicting this to be low scoring and wouldn’t be at all surprised by another 0-0.

In the past, when we have written about how to bet baseball, we explained how underdogs with high totals have been profitable for sports bettors, but until now had not offered any evidence to support this assumption. The theory is very basic: high totals lead to more unpredictability and that volatility benefits the team receiving plus money (i.e. the underdog).

To test this theory on how to bet baseball, we used our Bet Labs software to look through more than eight years of MLB betting data. We first chose to focus solely on underdogs by using the “Favorite/Dog” filter, and then continued by adding our “O/U” filter and steadily increased the total by a half-run starting at 6. Our belief was that as the total increased, we would see a constant increase in our return on investment (ROI).

Outside of the decrease between 8.5 and 9 and 10.5 and 11, we noticed that both the winning percentage and ROI increased as the total became higher. In fact, simply betting every underdog in games where the total was at least 10 would result in a winning system. This is not a recommended betting system, but it does show a definitive edge for shrewd sports bettors.

Today, there are no games with a total of at least 10, however both the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks are worth monitoring as they are underdogs in games with a total of 9.5. Historically, games played at Coors Field, Fenway Park and Rangers Ballpark in Arlington have most frequently had a total of at least 10, so we would recommend keeping tabs on the Rockies, Red Sox, and Rangers, respectively.